Analysis
Editor’s selection
The most likely near-term outcome is still not a complete halt to navigation. The Houthis would struggle to prevent every vessel from passing through Bab el-Mandeb, particularly in the face of an international naval response. But they no longer need to close the strait to impose costs. Vessel traffic fell sharply immediately after their latest territorial gains, while insurers and operators must now assess a threat that is both maritime and territorial.
Tiani is likely to remain in power over the coming months. The greater danger is that arrests and loyalist appointments deepen the grievances of soldiers fighting in western Niger, draw capable units towards Niamey and give armed groups more room to operate.
Ceasefire diplomacy has brought some traffic back without making passage routine. Vessel operators still face threat reports, insurance conditions and contingency options that can change within hours.
Senegal has moved closer to an IMF programme, but the damage from undisclosed debt extends beyond the headline ratio. Investors should watch creditor treatment, arrears, state-owned enterprises and the controls meant to prevent another failure to disclose public liabilities.
Talks between Kinshasa and AFC/M23 now offer more than another ceasefire declaration, but armed groups still govern territory and trade routes. Buyers and investors should judge progress by changes in local authority and traceability, not the pace of diplomacy.
Ankara strengthened the case for expanding European air-defence production, but headline spending figures do not tell us when systems will reach Ukraine. Contracts, component output and delivery rates will determine whether the commitments improve protection on the ground.
Russian support may advance a port or energy asset in stages, but it does not solve the conflict and commercial constraints that defeated earlier sponsors. Companies should assess each component on its own economics and counterparties, not on the promise of a complete corridor.
Risk Navigator
Risk Navigator is Epsilon Risks’ intelligence platform. It brings country ratings, analyst assessments, maps and current developments together so teams can compare markets, monitor changes and make informed decisions about operations, investment, travel and supply chains.
