A mass mobilisation on 24 October sustained pressure on France’s government despite tighter restrictions. Lecornu’s education concessions face wider demands on wages and public services, a divided parliament and an approaching presidential election.
Lula secured a fourth term after overturning a first-round defeat, but a stronger PL in Congress, a disputed budget and renewed pressure from Washington will limit his room to govern.
Israel’s election may end Benjamin Netanyahu’s premiership, but neither principal bloc has a clear majority and the military and fiscal legacies of the war will constrain the government that follows.
Spain will vote on 29 November after the defeat of Sánchez’s housing decrees. The election could produce a PP–Vox government, another left-led coalition or renewed parliamentary deadlock.
The government and Brazil’s independent fiscal watchdog disagree by almost R$105bn over the 2027 primary balance. Neither leading candidate has specified the measures—or coalition—that would close the gap.
Renewed fighting in Tigray has opened several fronts and brought former enemies into a common alliance against Abiy Ahmed. Their military coordination may prove easier to sustain than any shared political project.
The September import bans are small in value but mark the first use of Section 338 against Canadian products that qualify under USMCA. A threatened increase in automotive tariffs will determine whether the dispute spreads into the integrated North American manufacturing system.
The loss of Mokha revealed weaknesses in the government-aligned forces defending Yemen’s western coast. The Houthis now face the demands of holding an extended shoreline under air attack, while their opponents must reorganise before they can attempt to recover it.
Further Russian drone incursions over Romania and Moldova are likely in the coming months. Some may result from attacks on nearby Ukrainian targets; others may test how quickly both countries detect and respond to an intrusion.
The most likely near-term outcome is still not a complete halt to navigation. The Houthis would struggle to prevent every vessel from passing through Bab el-Mandeb, particularly in the face of an international naval response. But they no longer need to close the strait to impose costs. Vessel traffic fell sharply immediately after their latest territorial gains, while insurers and operators must now assess a threat that is both maritime and territorial.
Tiani is likely to remain in power over the coming months. The greater danger is that arrests and loyalist appointments deepen the grievances of soldiers fighting in western Niger, draw capable units towards Niamey and give armed groups more room to operate.
Ceasefire diplomacy has brought some traffic back without making passage routine. Vessel operators still face threat reports, insurance conditions and contingency options that can change within hours.
Senegal has moved closer to an IMF programme, but the damage from undisclosed debt extends beyond the headline ratio. Investors should watch creditor treatment, arrears, state-owned enterprises and the controls meant to prevent another failure to disclose public liabilities.
Talks between Kinshasa and AFC/M23 now offer more than another ceasefire declaration, but armed groups still govern territory and trade routes. Buyers and investors should judge progress by changes in local authority and traceability, not the pace of diplomacy.
Ankara strengthened the case for expanding European air-defence production, but headline spending figures do not tell us when systems will reach Ukraine. Contracts, component output and delivery rates will determine whether the commitments improve protection on the ground.
Russian support may advance a port or energy asset in stages, but it does not solve the conflict and commercial constraints that defeated earlier sponsors. Companies should assess each component on its own economics and counterparties, not on the promise of a complete corridor.
Risk Navigator
Risk Navigator is Epsilon Risks’ intelligence platform. It brings country ratings, analyst assessments, maps and current developments together so teams can compare markets, monitor changes and make informed decisions about operations, investment, travel and supply chains.
