France: Lecornu offers concessions as unions prepare to strike

More than 400,000 people demonstrated across France on 24 October, including 110,000 in Paris, according to the Interior Ministry. They marched a week after widespread violence, under tighter restrictions on gathering places and routes, with 70,000 police officers and gendarmes deployed nationwide.

The turnout sustained pressure on Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu as he prepared concessions to the students whose protests began in September. His announcements on 26 October included replacing the university admissions platform Parcoursup, increasing places in higher education and renovating school buildings. Student representatives welcomed parts of the package while calling for mobilisation to continue.

The government now faces negotiations extending well beyond education. Trade unions are preparing a nationwide strike on 5 November over wages, public services and employment. Further demonstrations are planned for 31 October. With the presidential election approaching in April, Lecornu must secure agreements that can survive parliamentary negotiations and begin producing results before Macron leaves office.

The movement began among secondary-school students protesting teacher shortages, deteriorating buildings, classroom conditions and access to higher education. By 17 October, their demonstrations had drawn in Yellow Vest activists, trade unionists, farmers and others protesting living costs and the condition of public services. Violence spread through several cities as groups attacked police, damaged public buildings and looted shops. The participants in those attacks did not necessarily share the objectives or organisational ties of the peaceful marchers.

Macron acknowledged failures of anticipation during his visit to Marseille on 26 October. Before the second Saturday, the authorities had already revised their preparations: prefects examined organisers’ ability to supervise marches, negotiated routes with mayors and restricted access to areas where shops and public buildings were considered vulnerable. Police reinforced mobile units and introduced checks at stations and on roads.

The difference in the recorded damage was substantial. The ministry’s provisional assessment counted 53 injured officers on 24 October, against 1,144 on 17 October, and 1,314 arrests, compared with 2,628. Clashes continued, including towards the end of the Paris march. Attendance was below the ministry’s estimate of 550,000 the previous week, although the change in restrictions, policing and crowd composition makes it difficult to isolate the reasons for that decline.

The government has grounds to argue that its revised security operation protected cities more effectively. Repeating an operation of that scale will be demanding: police unions have warned about staffing pressures, while restrictions on demonstrations have become a further grievance for parts of the movement. Calls for the next mobilisation now include the defence of civil liberties alongside the original social demands.

Macron’s successor would have to deliver the new admissions system

Lecornu’s education package gives student organisations several concrete commitments to examine. Parcoursup would become more transparent during the 2027 admissions cycle before being replaced in 2028. Ministers also announced 15,000 additional higher-education places over two years, a limit of 28 pupils in first-year lycée classes and inflation-linked university grants from the next academic year.

The building programme includes €4bn in renovation loans and €1bn in investment for university campuses. Loans could help local authorities bring work forward, although they would still have to finance repayment. Additional teaching places and smaller classes also require recruitment and facilities that cannot appear within weeks.

A committee involving students and teachers is due to make its first recommendations on Parcoursup by the end of November. Parliament will debate admissions on 28 October, without a vote. The government has therefore accepted the principle of replacing the platform before agreeing on its successor or securing any legislation required to introduce it.

That timetable crosses the end of Macron’s presidency. France will hold the first round of its presidential election on 18 April 2027 and the runoff on 2 May. A new administration could retain, revise or delay the arrangements now being negotiated. Student representatives seeking guarantees have reason to focus on the funding, legislation and recruitment decisions made before then.

Some organisations may conclude that negotiations offer more than continued blockades. Others may judge the proposed timetable too distant from the conditions facing pupils and students now. Their initial response—partial acceptance coupled with continued mobilisation—leaves Lecornu an opportunity to negotiate, but no agreement to end the protests.

The unions’ demands are harder to accommodate through the education package. Their joint call for 5 November seeks wage negotiations, higher pensions and benefits, more funding for public services and changes to taxation. The CFDT, CGT, FO, UNSA and FSU issued that call on 5 October, before either Saturday’s unrest. They were already preparing a broader labour mobilisation when the violence brought national attention to the student movement.

There is consequently no single delegation with which Lecornu can settle the crisis. Student groups can negotiate admissions and teaching conditions. Unions represent employees with demands on pay and employment. Informal protest networks have fewer representatives able to commit participants to an agreement. Concessions sufficient for one organisation may leave several others preparing their next action.

Lecornu needs opposition votes for a budget the unions reject

The government’s budget proposal was difficult to reconcile with those demands before the latest concessions.

It forecasts growth of 0.5% this year and a public deficit of 5.4% of GDP. For 2027, it seeks to bring the deficit down to 5% through measures intended to improve public finances by €54bn. Interest costs are expected to rise to €91.2bn, from €79.2bn in 2026, absorbing resources before ministers address additional demands on schools, public-sector pay or household support.

France can borrow to fund further concessions. Doing so would widen the gap between the government’s commitments and its deficit target unless ministers found savings or revenue elsewhere. The dispute would then move to which taxpayers, programmes or services should bear the cost.

Lecornu lacks a dependable majority for making those choices. The Assembly has remained divided since Macron’s 2024 dissolution, with opposition parties able to combine against government proposals while disagreeing over the alternatives. On 9 October, the finance committee rejected the revenue section of the budget after extensive amendments. That vote illustrated the difficulty of assembling support even before ministers began revising their response to the protests.

Negotiations may produce additional education funding or targeted assistance for particular households. A wider settlement on wages, benefits and public services would require a much larger financial commitment and parliamentary agreement on how to fund it. Legislators who support one concession may oppose the taxes or spending reductions needed to pay for another.

The government also faces a problem of timing. Renovating a school or opening a university course takes longer than announcing the budget. Private-sector wage agreements depend on employers and negotiations within individual industries. Even measures adopted quickly may take months to affect the circumstances that brought people onto the streets.

Meanwhile, the choice of tactics will influence how long the mobilisation can last. Unions have condemned the destruction and sought to preserve peaceful participation. The CFDT’s education federation has argued that violence pushed the movement’s demands out of public discussion, while maintaining its support for the November strike.

A sustained campaign of strikes and organised marches could place pressure on the government without reproducing the scenes of 17 October. Its reach will depend on participation at workplaces and on whether local organisations extend stoppages beyond the national date. A strike call alone does not establish the extent of disruption.

For businesses, the effects could accumulate across successive mobilisations. Restrictions and demonstrations can reduce access to commercial centres even where police prevent damage. Transport stoppages may affect attendance and deliveries elsewhere. The relevant geography will extend beyond the streets where the most widely circulated images were filmed.

Le Pen has made public order central to her presidential campaign

Marine Le Pen launched her campaign in Orléans on 25 October, promising to restore public order and accusing the government of lacking authority. The violence gave her an immediate setting in which to make that argument, six months before voting begins.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon has supported the protest movement while condemning looting and vandalism. His campaign stresses the social demands that participants accuse the government of neglecting. Candidates associated with Macron’s presidency face the additional difficulty of explaining their record while proposing a more convincing response to the crisis.

Opposition parties may support individual concessions, but their presidential candidates have little incentive to present a negotiated settlement as a government success. Legislators are also considering their positions after Macron. Supporting an unpopular budget can carry an electoral cost even where they regard a particular measure as necessary.

Macron retains the powers of the presidency and the government continues to administer the state. His remaining time in office nevertheless limits the assurances he can give about reforms extending into 2028. The candidates seeking to succeed him are already proposing different approaches to admissions, public spending and policing.

The unrest’s electoral effect remains open. Violence can increase support for a tougher security response; sustained peaceful participation can keep attention on education and living standards. Neither reaction translates automatically into votes for the candidate claiming to represent it. The two Saturdays have already shown how sharply the character of a mobilisation can change within a week.

The next demonstrations on 31 October will take place after students have had time to examine Lecornu’s announcements. The 5 November strike will involve organisations whose demands extend further into the budget and the workplace. If participation remains substantial, the government will face pressure to improve its offer while parliament is deciding how much of that offer it can finance.

Lecornu has begun negotiations with specific concessions on education. To carry them through, he needs funding, legislative support and enough acceptance among protesters for the talks to continue. Those decisions fall in the final months of a presidency whose would-be successors are already campaigning on its handling of the crisis.